Five foresight tools for companies

Accelerating change requires organisations to observe trends and weak signals and interpret them against their strategic objectives. Over the past five years, the number of changes affecting the operating environment has increased by 183 %..

In a more predictable business environment, strategy and objectives were often based on the past. Forecasting refers to numerical projections of a company’s future based on historical data. Foresight, in contrast, uses tools from futures studies to observe and understand changes in the operating environment and evolving customer needs.

How do other companies use foresight?

The range of foresight methods is broad, and typically the tools selected depend on the question at hand, as well as available time and resources. Foresight tools are not only for executives: in a rapidly changing operating environment, all experts benefit from using them. This also enables organisations to mobilise a wider group to identify and analyse future developments.

1. Scenarios

Alternative future scenarios encourage organisations to explore business opportunities in both desirable and undesirable futures. Scenarios help clarify business direction amid changes in the operating environment. Even undesirable futures may contain opportunities. Scenarios reflecting alternative futures encourage organisations to explore business opportunities in both desirable and undesirable futures. Scenarios help clarify business direction amid changes in the operating environment. Even undesirable futures may contain opportunities.

2. PESTE

PESTE analysis maps trends in the operating environment. It considers political and legal factors, the economy, the environment, social change and technological development. Typically, a PESTE analysis precedes scenario building.

3. Weak signals

Monitoring, analysing and reflecting weak or early signals against the organisation’s strategy and objectives enables companies to leverage emerging phenomena in business. Weak signals can also serve as early warnings of new competitors or declining markets.

4. Customer foresight

In a changing world, customer needs are in constant flux. By understanding and researching both current and potential new customers, companies aim to remain relevant in the future as well.

5. Alternative business cases

Traditional forecasting can be combined with foresight in a scenario-based business case. In this approach, indicative business case calculations are developed based on alternative futures and future customer needs to support decision-making.